Outlook Blogs

Nitish Kumar's 2003 Praise Of Narendra Modi

Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:33:08 GMT

A speech made by Nitish Kumar, then the Union railway minister, at Adipur, Kutch, while inaugurating a railway project in December, 2003, praising the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a potential national leader, a development-oriented politician and asking people move beyond the past.

“I hope Narendra Modi won’t be confined to Gujarat for long and the nation will get his services.”

“I want to congratulate Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. Lots of work has been done in Gujarat, but a different image about the state and about Narendra bhai has been created outside the state. The work in the state isn’t publicised the way it should be,” Kumar went on.

“What happened (in 2002) was a blot. But it’s not good if we remember just that and forget other things that are happening.”

“I congratulate Narendra Bhai. Gujarat’s development is helpful for India and if Gujarat develops the nation will also develop".

“When there was tension in 2002 Nitish Kumar was with us. When there is peace now, he is parting with us,” BJP spokesperson Shahnawaz Hussain said.

"We have a number of CDs in which (Nitish) Kumar has publicly and uninhibitedly praised his Gujarat counterpart and even praised him to the effect that his services and leadership will be beneficial to the country... We have collected all these CDs for display before the people of Bihar so that his duplicity could be exposed thoroughly," BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi told reporters, a day after the BJP and the JD(U) parted ways.

BJP leaders say they will visit villages and all nooks and corners of Bihar and play all the CDs in which Mr Kumar had praised the Gujarat Chief Minister on several occasions since the post-Godhra riots.

Sushil Kumar Modi said Nitish Kumar, at a function in Kutch on December 13, 2003, "had downplayed the Gujarat riots a year earlier and said the impressive development in that state should get precedence over the incident which should be buried once and for all."

Defending himself, the Bihar Chief Minister, who was the Railway Minister at that time, cited protocol issues for his remarks.

"The protocol says that in government functions a union minister is not supposed to criticise a state government... As a union minister are we supposed to make political speech at an official function?" he asked.

"When I used to visit other states as a railway minister, those speeches were never political. It's part of the protocol to praise the host state and not to speak against them," the Bihar Chief Minister added.

Dismissing Nitish Kumar's defence that his praise of Narendra Modi was for the sake of protocol, Sushil Kumar Modi, the former Deputy Chief Minister said, "One sticks to agenda of a particular function in making a speech at an official function and does not talk of sensitive issues and make motivational remarks asking a leader to play a national role."

"The BJP has decided to give a national role to Modi in 2013, but Nitish Kumar had forecast a bigger role for the Gujarat Chief Minister a decade back," he said.

Nitish Kumar's 2003 speech in praise of Narendra Modi is not the only one and BJP has collected many more CDs, which it will play before the people in Bihar and outside to expose his duplicity, he added.

Was Jiah Khan’s “Suicide Note” Forged?

Mon, 17 Jun 2013 19:03:09 GMT

First came news about what was claimed to be a "suicide note" by the young actress Jiah Khan who is said to have committed suicide.

And now the latest controversy occupying social media for the last two days has been about the handwriting in the alleged note and other letters, which were apparently recovered by the police from the residence of Suraj Pancholi.

A blog started in support of the latter claims that the handwriting in the alleged "suicide note" which Jiah Khan's mother, Rabiya Amin Khan, had circulated to the media stating that she found it in her daughter’s wallet box does not match with the letters that are recovered from Suraj’s house.

Bahukutumbi Raman (1936-2013), R.I.P.

Sun, 16 Jun 2013 23:35:07 GMT

Photo: Churumuri

It's with a sense of sadness and loss that we register the death of Mr Bahukutumbi Raman (B. Raman), who needs no introduction for the regular readers of our website.

Mr Raman wrote very matter of factly about his battle with cancer ever since he was diagnosed with it, always willing to share his experiences to spread greater awareness about what he called his live-in-companion.

'Julia Gillard Quail … Small Breasts, Huge Thighs...'

Wed, 12 Jun 2013 23:06:31 GMT

Australian politics saw another low when it emerged that the menu at an opposition fundraising dinner offered "Julia Gillard quail … with small breasts, huge thighs and a big red box."

The Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has called on Liberal National party to drop Mal Brough, the candidate responsible for organising the dinner.

What The Chinese Censors Do Not Want You To See

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 23:42:52 GMT

Yes, just this: a photograph of American President Obama and the Chinese premier Xi Jinping.

The photo shows the two leaders walking during their first summit at Sunnylands, a picturesque desert resort in southern California on Sunday, and soon stormed Weibo, China's version of Twitter after a user pointed out that it resembles an illustration of Winnie the Pooh and Tigger.

As the photo went viral, the Chinese censors swooped in and had it removed. But here it is, for your delectation...

Big Brother Is Watching You

Fri, 07 Jun 2013 14:13:28 GMT

First came Glenn Greenwald's explosive report in the Guardian: NSA collecting phone records of millions of Verizon customers daily:

The National Security Agency is currently collecting the telephone records of millions of US customers of Verizon, one of America's largest telecoms providers, under a top secret court order issued in April.

The order, a copy of which has been obtained by the Guardian, requires Verizon on an "ongoing, daily basis" to give the NSA information on all telephone calls in its systems, both within the US and between the US and other countries.

The document shows for the first time that under the Obama administration the communication records of millions of US citizens are being collected indiscriminately and in bulk – regardless of whether they are suspected of any wrongdoing.

The secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (Fisa) granted the order to the FBI on April 25, giving the government unlimited authority to obtain the data for a specified three-month period ending on July 19.

• Read the Verizon court order in full here
• Obama administration justifies surveillance

And then a follow-up: NSA Prism program taps in to user data of Apple, Google and others:

The National Security Agency has obtained direct access to the systems of Google, Facebook, Apple and other US internet giants, according to a top secret document obtained by the Guardian.

The NSA access is part of a previously undisclosed program called Prism, which allows officials to collect material including search history, the content of emails, file transfers and live chats, the document says.

The Guardian has verified the authenticity of the document, a 41-slide PowerPoint presentation – classified as top secret with no distribution to foreign allies – which was apparently used to train intelligence operatives on the capabilities of the program. The document claims "collection directly from the servers" of major US service providers.

Although the presentation claims the program is run with the assistance of the companies, all those who responded to a Guardian request for comment on Thursday denied knowledge of any such program.

Writing for the Atlantic, Michael Hirsh points out that despite this unconstitutional level of surveillance,

The challenge is that even now, in spite of these programs, the intelligence community remains overwhelmed by data, and as the Boston Marathon bombings in April showed, it is very difficult to piece together clues in time to stop an attack. "There are massive gaps in our ability to actually analyze data. Much of the data just sits there and nobody looks at it," says one former NSA official who would discuss classified programs only on condition of anonymity. "People can do pretty horrific things on their own. Whether with explosive devices, or chemicals or biological agents. Everybody's walking around with these devastating weapons. How are you going to stop that?"

...

The challenge is that even now, in spite of these programs, the intelligence community remains overwhelmed by data, and as the Boston Marathon bombings in April showed, it is very difficult to piece together clues in time to stop an attack. "There are massive gaps in our ability to actually analyze data. Much of the data just sits there and nobody looks at it," says one former NSA official who would discuss classified programs only on condition of anonymity. "People can do pretty horrific things on their own. Whether with explosive devices, or chemicals or biological agents. Everybody's walking around with these devastating weapons. How are you going to stop that?"

Read on at the Atlantic: Birth of the Surveillance State

The New York Times points out: Blogger, With Focus on Surveillance, Is at Center of a Debate:

“The N.S.A. is kind of the crown jewel in government secrecy. I expect them to react even more extremely,” Mr. Greenwald said in a telephone interview. He said that he had been advised by lawyer friends that “he should be worried,” but he had decided that “what I am doing is exactly what the Constitution is about and I am not worried about it.”

Being at the center of a debate is a comfortable place for Mr. Greenwald, 46, who came to mainstream journalism through his own blog, which he started in 2005. Before that he was a lawyer, including working 18 months at the high-powered New York firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, where he represented large corporate clients.

“I approach my journalism as a litigator,” he said. “People say things, you assume they are lying, and dig for documents to prove it.”

Mr. Greenwald’s writings at The Guardian — and before that, for Salon and on his own blog — can resemble a legal brief, with a list of points, extended arguments and detailed references and links. As Andrew Sullivan, a frequent sparring partner and sometime ally, put it, “once you get into a debate with him, it can be hard to get the last word.”

'The CICSE Board Is Fraudulent And Guilty Of Mark Tampering'

Wed, 05 Jun 2013 21:27:21 GMT

Debarghya Das mounts "a privacy breach of the highest order" by "acquiring the results of ICSE and ISC candidates" because "the results page had no proper security mechanism whatsoever."

But his purpose was not just "to demonstrate the vulnerability of information on the web in India", for he found something bizarre: no student, out of the 15 thousand or so, scored some marks at all in ANY subject -- the exact same numbers were missing from everybody's results in all subjects

Evidence:

There were specific numbers, in no real pattern, that were missing for the distribution of the entire distribution of all subjects achieved by all students. And these missing numbers were regularly interspersed on the number line. For example, 81, 82, 84, 85, 87, 89, 91 and 93 were visibly missing. I repeat, no one in India had achieved these marks in the ICSE.
32, 33 and 34 were visibly absent. This chain of 3 consecutive numbers is the longest chain of absent numbers. Coincidentally, 35 happens to be the pass mark.
From the 66 numbers between 35, the pass mark, and 100, the maximum possible, ONLY 33 WERE ATTAINED.
Let me repeat that, 50% of the possible pass marks were attainable in the ICSE. Here's a complete list of unattained marks -
36, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 47, 49, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 59, 61, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 71, 73, 75, 77, 79, 81, 82, 84, 85, 87, 89, 91, 93. Yes, that's 33 numbers!

And he eventually concludes:

In my opinion, there is not a shadow of doubt in my mind that the CICSE board is fraudulent and guilty of mark tampering. Whether they changed some results by plus or minus 1 or plus or minus 5 is irrelevant. Fact is, they changed some results. This is the second motive behind my writing of this article - to draw out this fact.

Read the full article: Hacking into the Indian Education System

Watch this space.

Vina Mazumdar (1927-2013)

Thu, 30 May 2013 13:18:14 GMT

Noted academic and a leading figure of India's women's movement, Dr Vina Mazumdar, died early today after a brief illness.

86-year old Mazumdar was suffering from a tumour in her lungs, her family said. She is survived by three daughters and a son.

A strong votary of increased women's representation in Parliament and legislature, Mazumdar was the secretary of the Committee on the Status of Women in India that brought out the first report on the condition of women in the country, 'Towards Equality', in 1974.

The report became a turning point both for women's studies and the women's movement in India.

But, as Sheela Reddy wrote in her 2010 profile:

Rituparno Ghosh (1963 - 2013)

Thu, 30 May 2013 10:46:25 GMT

Noted filmmaker Rituparno Ghosh died of cardiac arrest at his south Kolkata residence today.

Winner of 12 national and some international awards, Ghosh was suffering from pancreatitis and died of heart attack at 7.30 am, his family said.

Ghosh shot to fame with a children’s film directed by him ‘Hirer Angti’ in 1994. His film ‘Unishe April’ won the national award in 1995.

His other widely acclaimed films include ‘Dahan’, ’Asukh’, ‘Chokher Bali’, ‘Raincoat’, ‘Bariwali’, ‘Antarmahal’ and ‘Noukadubi’.

See more in Outlook Archives

Some of the reactions on Twitter (will be updated through the day):

'Mahendra Karma Is Dead. And I Am Here To Write Ill Of Him'

Tue, 28 May 2013 20:32:21 GMT

Himanshu Kumar in Tehelka: Two roads parted in the woods:

Mahendra Karma’s killing today has revived my memories of the time I had spent with him. His ambition and his fears had forced him to get caught in a trap that Raman Singh had laid for him. In 2005 the police had been closing in on him over his alleged role in an illegal sale of teak wood from the forests. He had faced imminent arrest. It was to escape that and the subsequent ignominy that he gave in to Raman Singh’s demand that he head the Salwa Judum. I may or may not have agreed with whatever Mahendra Karma did, but I must concede that he always impressed me with his intelligence and courage.

Read the full piece at Tehelka: Two roads parted in the woods:

Suvojit Bagchi in the Hindu: The rise and fall of Mahendra Karma – the Bastar Tiger:

Mahendra Karma came from an affluent family of Bastar. His father was the ‘Bada Manjhi,’ or the one who is the head of the heads of several villages. Being a landowner, Mr. Karma’s natural choice would have been Congress, but he chose the Communist Party of India which had an important presence in the region. “He was a committed student leader and later went to the Assembly. His performance inside the House was outstanding. He was twice our MLA,” said veteran CPI leader Chhitaranjan Bakshi.

But Mr. Karma changed teams after initial defeats. His cousin Lakhsman Karma, also a Congress leader, told him “to join Congress, to make it big.” Mr. Karma indeed wanted to make it big, so big that people would recognise him in Bastar, in Delhi and perhaps even in Hungary. “I went to Hungary once, it’s a lovely country,” Mr. Karma said once, with his usual, affable smile.

Read the full piece in the Hindu: The rise and fall of Mahendra Karma – the Bastar Tiger

For long, Karma often resembled a wolf that preyed on the tribals of southern Chhattisgarh, many from his own tribe, says Sudeep Chakravarti in the Mint: Mahendra Karma and his cynical form of vigilantism:

This may be construed as indelicate in the aftermath of the savage Maoist attack on 25 May in southern Chhattisgarh that left him and several others dead—unlike Karma, many innocent of human rights wrongdoing. But it certainly is not an act of hypocrisy. Karma wasn’t exactly a man of probity. For long, the Congress party’s point man in Bastar, sometimes called “Bastar Tiger”, Karma often resembled a wolf that preyed on the tribals of southern Chhattisgarh, many of them from his own tribe, with utter disregard for their livelihood and lives. While I abhor violence, including the revenge hit by Maoists that finally claimed Karma at 62, his death should not be used to whitewash his crimes against humanity.

Read the full piece at the Mint: Mahendra Karma and his cynical form of vigilantism

Not 'Fighter Planes Or Massed Battalions'

Tue, 28 May 2013 20:27:10 GMT

'Promising the full implementation of the Forest Rights Act, a temporary ban on mining projects in Fifth Schedule Areas, and a revival of the powers of gram panchayats,' says Ramachandra Guha in the Hindu, would be a far more effective strike against Naxalites: The continuing tragedy of the adivasis

The killings of Mahendra Karma and his colleagues are the latest casualties in a bloody war that began a decade ago in Dantewada. What will the State and Central governments now do? The knee-jerk reaction, doubtless encouraged by editorial writers and TV anchors in Delhi, will be to call for the Army, and perhaps the Air Force too, to launch an all-out war on the Naxalites, regardless of the consequences for civilians. One hopes wiser counsels will prevail. The times call not for further retributive violence, but for a deeper reflection on the discontent among, and dispossession of, the adivasis of central India, who are in all respects the most desperately disadvantaged of the Republic’s citizens, far worse off than Dalits even...

The social scientist Ajay Dandekar, who has done extensive research on the subject, observes that the rise of extremist violence is a consequence of “the complete mismanagement of democracy and governance in the tribal areas.” The latest bout of violence, he says, should come as a wake-up call to those “who place still some hope in the rule of law and constitutional governance.”

I entirely concur with Dandekar when he writes that “if even now the policy makers are willing to take the issues of justice to the tribals head-on the extremists will definitely be dealt a bodyblow in the process and their own legitimacy would stand questioned.” A first step here would be for the top leadership of the present government to reach out directly to the adivasis. The Prime Minister and the Chairperson of the UPA should together tour through the strife-torn areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Orissa, promising the full implementation of the Forest Rights Act, a temporary ban on mining projects in Fifth Schedule Areas, and a revival of the powers of gram panchayats. That would be a far more effective strike against Naxalites than sending in fighter planes or massed battalions.

Read the full article at the Hindu: The continuing tragedy of the adivasis

How To Make Sure Your Film Goes To Cannes

Mon, 27 May 2013 15:58:34 GMT

A seven-step guide from none other than Nawazuddin Siddiqui

Banning Comedy Central India

Sat, 25 May 2013 20:33:24 GMT

Of course, because it cannot perhaps ban various netas and other assorted eminences from saying what they routinely do about women, the I&B ministry has stepped forward and bravely banned the comedy channel Comedy Central for 10 days for "injuring public morality."

Some of the reactions on Twitter:

Why The IPL’s Critics Are Mean And Wrong

Thu, 23 May 2013 15:07:58 GMT

If you want to read only one piece on IPL today, make it a point to read this one by Mukul Kesavan, writing in the Telegraph: Much ado about nothing

The uproar about the IPL following the ‘revelations’ about S. Sreesanth and his erring teammates threatens to become farcical...

N. Srinivasan, the BCCI president, is a special target for dead-ender venom. Everything he does is designated nefarious. The fact that he is in charge of the BCCI and the owner of an IPL franchise is deemed a wicked conflict of interest. When Srikkanth wore two hats, one as the chief selector of the national team and the other as brand ambassador for the Chennai Super Kings, the franchise owned by Srinivasan, journalists sang the conflict-of-interest ditty like a theme song. Srinivasan’s decision to make Dhoni a vice-president of India Cements Ltd, a company he happens to own, apparently compounds this conflict-of-interest problem. This carping has got to the stage where not even a man’s business is his own business, if you see what I mean.

If men are known by the company they keep, Mr Srinivasan is in very good company; Anil Kumble has had exactly the same problem with sanctimonious critics. India’s greatest bowler, its most pugnacious captain, a man who has a traffic landmark in Bangalore named after him, had his integrity called into question merely because he started up a player management company at the same time as he became president of the Karnataka State Cricket Association.

Read the full article at the Telegraph: Much ado about nothing

UP Police: Khaki Vs Khaki

Wed, 22 May 2013 23:58:58 GMT

You've heard of the police brutality against the vulnerable, the poor, the innocent. But these two constables of the Uttar Pradesh police, while on duty at a function of the state where the Chief Minister CM Akhilesh Yadav was present, were caught on camera assaulting each other in full public view in Lucknow.

Pakistan Elections 2013: The Aftermath

Wed, 22 May 2013 23:32:11 GMT

The May 11th elections in Pakistan represented the first time that a civilian regime completed its term in office and held elections in which power will be transferred democratically to a new civilian regime. In a country where the security establishment has a long history of throwing out elected regimes and manipulating results, this in itself was an important landmark. For this (and for very little else, unfortunately) we can thank President Zardari and his coalition building skills and stubborn determination.

For my pre-election predictions, see here. For immediate post-result thoughts, see here.

In the short election campaign the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan captured the imagination of the newly educated and elite classes but it did not have the time (and/or the ability) to catch up with the pre-poll favourite, the PMLN. The superior and far more detailed groundwork done by the PMLN while it ruled Punjab for 5 years, its stronger slate of candidates, its relatively energetic performance in the Punjab government, and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s improved reputation, (along with a PPP collapse) led to a PMLN landslide in Punjab. This has practically given the PMLN a simple majority in the national assembly in spite of having only a handful of seats outside Punjab. The newcomer PTI will form a coalition government in KP; PPP, with or without MQM, will rule again in Sindh; and Balochistan remains a unique case, completely outside the national mainstream.

With daily bombings by the Taliban keeping a check on the ANP, PPP and (to some extent) the MQM, and with an insurgency and its frequently vicious suppression going on in Balochistan, traditional campaigning was mostly confined to Punjab. There, an almost millenarian excitement took hold of the middle class in the course of the PTI campaign; This phenomenon was most visible on social media and in the better neighbourhoods of urban centres. Meeting each other at coffee spots and snack bars and pushing “like” buttons on each other’s facebook pages, the newly energized middle class supporters of Imran Khan managed to convince themselves that a complete root and branch renovation of Pakistan under brand new leadership was on the cards.

Never mind that Imran Khan’s had not told anyone how the great 90 day transformation would be carried out in terms of actual mechanics and workable solutions. Or that Imran Khan’s actual candidates (in a parliamentary system, constituency politics matters) were a motley collection of turncoats, inexperienced youngsters, Islamists (a good number made their bones in the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, student wing of the Jamat Islami and not known for handling opponents with kidgloves),

NGO stars and not-so-clean real estate manipulators was ignored. Unaware that this excitement had not really reached all voters, these newly politicised young people were taken aback when results did not match expectations and loudly complained about electoral rigging. But there is no indication that there was any nation-wide systematic manipulation by the establishment of the sort that has happened regularly in past elections. Small-scale local rigging did take place (and possibly some late-night administrative shenanigans did take place in Punjab once trends became clear) but compared to most past elections, this one was relatively clean in Punjab. Since most PTI voters were not involved in past elections, they don’t have any benchmark with which to compare this election and remain convinced that they were robbed. But given the fact that PMLN has probably won fair and square on most seats and even PTI enthusiasts have little concrete proof of extensive rigging, these protests will fade soon in Punjab.

The same cannot be said of Karachi; there, the MQM has been accused of extensive ballot-stuffing and other irregularities. While PTI did not make any serious campaign effort in the MQM strongholds, they did put up a strong campaign in NA250, where a lot of the super-elite lives. When the election commission failed to conduct a fair election even in that seat the PTI broke a longstanding Karachi taboo and openly protested against the MQM. MQM chief Altaf Hussain made a threatening speech from London in response and on Saturday a prominent member of the PTI women’s wing was shot dead in an apparent target killing.

While no one has claimed responsibility and the police (as usual) have no leads, Imran Khan made the unusual move of publicly holding Altaf Hussain responsible for this murder. The resulting confrontation between the PTI and the MQM has raised the hopes of all those in the country who think the MQM needs to be cut down to size and its mafia-like hold on Karachi has to be defanged. But that may be easier said than done. More on this later. .

In terms of government formation, the post-election landscape seems more or less clear. PMLN will form governments in Punjab and at the centre. PTI will form an Islamist-leaning coalition in KP and will get a chance to show what their promises of radical change mean in practice. There will be a weak coalition of doubtful legitimacy in Balochistan, where the army will continue to call the shots. In Sindh, the PPP will form the government and most likely will take MQM along for the sake of peace. But what happens after that? A few guesses from a distant observer:

The rigging allegations in Punjab will come to nothing. PMLN will rule unchallenged for now. Barring any sudden deterioration in the security situation, they will push ahead with many development projects. They also need to improve law and order and to avoid administrative high-handedness, but given their record, may not do as well in these areas. The inevitable result will be that even if they are able to retain the loyalty of most voters, there will be resentments and complaints that will create openings for opposition parties. PTI and PPP will now have to struggle to define one of them as the main opposition. PTI may look like it has the advantage right now, but PPP is not without strengths. IF it recasts itself as a left-of-centre social democratic party and does some creative politicking on behalf of poor people (instead of having Manzoor Wattoo hunt for “electables”) it will not face real competition for that space from the Paknationalist-middle class focus of the PTI. Whether it can actually do so under current leadership is an open question. PTI may settle into the role of main opposition (and therefore have a reasonable chance in the next election) but their problem is their broad but shallow coalition and its millenarian tendencies. While this kind of vague and image-heavy nationalist and religious revivalism can be an advantage in a one-time go for broke effort, this quasi-religious mission is not the best formula for long term electoral success. We will have to wait and see if PTI matures into a real party or remains a one-hit wonder.
Imran Khan’s provincial government in KP will face the Taliban problem from day one and will be unable to solve it. Some people think the security establishment wanted this regime in KP so that they can better manage their dealings with "good" and "bad" Taliban as the American effort in Afghanistan winds down. But even if they did make such plans, it doesnt mean their plans will lead where they want. They will be unable to control the bad Taliban and will be unable to decisively separate the good Taliban from them. And if the plan for Afghanistan is for "our Taliban" to take over smoothly once the Americans leave,then that too is not going to happen.In the end, the security services will have to fight both the good and the bad Taliban on behalf of the Pakistani elite. They may not want to do so, but they will not have a choice in this matter. There may be relative peace for a few months as negotiations proceed, but war will inevitably follow. The Jihadist project is not compatible with globalized capitalist economy and when push comes to shove, the Pakistani elite will pick global capitalism over Jihad. The days when both were on offer from the same American shop are over.
While the PTI regime in KP will not be able to deliver on its promise of peace, they still have the chance to show some improvement in governance and corruption. Thatwillrequire Imran Khan to appoint good people (like he did in Shaukat Khanum hospital) and then let them work unencumbered by variouscrackpot ideasabout jirgas,Scandinavian Islamand elected police officials.Andit will require smooth cooperation between the Jamat Islami and PTI without accepting all of Jamat’s own collection of crackpot Islamist ideas. These are big challenges, but if PTI can stay away from some of their own impractical or dangerous talking points (they dont have to abandon them in public, just ignore them in practice), then they may deliver improved administration and become a real party with a long-term future.
Karachi is a migraine for all concerned. First of all, we should be clear that there is no question of PTI “taking on” the MQM in Karachi on its own. PTI has no armed operatives and no mafia-skills. They can collect everyone’s sympathy and still get nowhere. The only way this confrontation tilts towards PTI is if the state is willing to fight MQM on their behalf. But that has issues of its own. The police and judiciary in Karachi is currently politicised, corrupt and ineffective. They will not be able to do this job on their own. This means that if there is a confrontation between the state and MQM, the army and its intelligence agencies will be involved or MQM will win. And the "agency" way of “getting it done” in Pakistan usually involves causing a split in the targeted party (e.g. by engineering a revolt in the party or maybe even getting Altaf Hussain arrested in London in connection with the killing of Imran Farooq), setting off a turf-war on the streets, and then using extra-judicial executions and disappearances to manage the resulting violence. They havenoother script. But these are inherently risky operations and the intelligence agencies have such a long and convoluted history of meddling in Karachi that by now even they dont know who will fight who on whose behalf. Since neither the PMLN nor the army, can afford a risky operation in Karachi while busy fighting Taliban, its probalby not going to happen in the near future. Even if they do try it, it will not be the quick restoration of law and order so desired by many who are currently sick of the MQM. It will be chaotic, it will be violent, and it will not end soon. And given rumors of links with British intelligence and the "international community", Altaf Hussain may not have run out of options yet. So the more likely scenario is that PTI’s more elite followers will be permitted to openly challenge the MQM in some areas (a big change in itself) but there will be no grand operation and no sudden restoration of rule of law in Karachi. IF Nawaz Sharif and the army prove to be miracles of far-sightedness and maturity, then maybe in a few more years MQM will be pushed towards either becoming a more normal political party, or be defanged by careful use of improved law-enforcement in Karachi. All that without alienating Mohajirs as a community or carrying out extensive kill-and-dump operations and crudely executed gang-on-gang manipulations. One can always hope, but there is no quick fix.
PMLN will try to get off to a smooth start with the army. They are not suicidal and they have matured enough to avoid hasty confrontations. But at the same time, they know they have to get the army under civilian control in the long run. And the army knows that too. IF leadership on both sides is very mature, they can learn to share power as well as real-estate and mining profits. It would be a miracle, but why not pray for miracles? This one is needed more than most in Pakistan. Given the past records of both parties, there are grounds for being pessimistic, but after minimal deliberation, I am going to make an optimistic prediction: I predict that Nawaz Sharif will not face another military coup. There will be strains and stresses, but the civilian government will remain in place and will slowly increase its control over the armed forces.
Relations with India will improve under Nawaz Sharif. There will be no grand deal to solve all problems but trade and travel (and "optics") will be normalized quickly. Nawaz Sharif understands the economic benefits of normalization and the army is starting to realize that in this war of a thousand cuts with India, we have mostly cut ourselves. There will be resistance and setbacks but progress will continue. People believe the army will re-energize the Kashmir Jihad or launch a new Mumbai-style attack, but I dont think the great powers (including China) are in any such mood. Without their tacit approval, the risks are too high. The PTI, led by chief spokesperson Shireen Mazari, may parrot the traditional paknationalist line on this issue, but as long as Nawaz Sharif is delivering better governance and economic performance, the public will remain unimpressed with “betrayal of Kashmir” and other slogans of the"defence of Pakistan council".
Nothing much will change in Balochistan. This is sad and undesirable, but that does seem the most likely scenario. The Baloch separatists are too few to actually pull the province out of Pakistani hands by force (unless assisted in a big way by NATO, which doesn’t seem likely to me). At the same time, the army and its agencies operate almost exclusively on the kill-and-dump frequency, with no sign of finesse or any desire to compromise. Transitioning to full civilian rule seems very difficult and will be a Nawaz Sharif miracle if it happens. It probably wont.
ANP has been mauled in KP, but this does not have to be the end. As the Taliban continue their violent ways and the "play both sides" strategy falls apart, there will be an opening again for a Pakhtoon nationalist progressive voice. Of course, if the Talibs win (which cannot happen unless the Pakistani state has allowed it to happen) this will have to be movement led from abroad for a while, but even in that case, public support for the ANP will only increase with time. They will need to be available to take advantage of that.

All in all, the elections are a step forward. People voted in large numbers, proving once again that the Taliban propaganda against this “heathen system of government” is not getting much traction. The Zardari regime, for all its faults, managed to get Pakistan to this point and deserves appreciation for this achievement. The rigging allegations and various administrative irregularities have dented the image of this election but a more energetic and forceful elections commissioner next time can repair credibility in the heartland without a big problem. Miracles of various sizes (see above) may be needed in Karachi and Balochistan. Miracles will also be needed to bring the war with the Taliban and the war with India to simultaneous closure. If the PMLN can deliver a more capable regime and restore the economy (doable) and some of the miracles happen, we may be in a much happier place by 2018. If not, we may still hope for more of the same. The one thing we cannot afford is a revolution (Islamic,PTI-Paknationalist o r Marxist-Leninist... the last is not on the cards but comrades are still around and appreciate the plug). We dodged a bullet this time and with luck we may get away next time as well.

Graphic Courtesy: The Dawn, Pakistan

Corporatisation Of Angelina Jolie's Breasts?

Fri, 17 May 2013 23:27:15 GMT

The power of a celebrity sharing personal anecdotes, particularly when it comes to something as life-threatening as breast-cancer and as moving and transformative an experience as a preventive double mastectomy (the medical term for the surgical removal of one or both breasts) to reduce risk of breast cancer was brought home when Angelina Jolie wrote her celebrated "brave and heroic" op-ed in the New York Times. what she described as a "desire to encourage other women to get gene-tested and to raise awareness of the options available to those at risk"

Leaving aside predictable adoloscent male responses on the lines of memorial pages on something aptly named as the Superficial, there was genuine admiration and a world-wide media-buzz. As the Guardian put it:

The Third Way Out

Fri, 17 May 2013 23:23:37 GMT

Pratap Bhanu Mehta doesn't pull any punches:

The idea of a third front may not be a coherent political project. But its shadowy presence is a reminder that there is an underlying yearning to break through the limited choices offered by national parties. The Congress has perfected the art of converting the "there is no alternative" argument to a form of hubris and blackmail. It has induced such a profound myopia and arrogance in the party that even Congress supporters chafe at the thought of having no options. It may not always be irrational to succumb to blackmail, but we will be diminished if we don't punish it for its follies. The BJP does not, at present, offer a reassuring alternative. The party has four structures pulling in different directions: an obdurate RSS that still cannot overcome its past, several competent chief ministers whose ability to work together is yet to be tested, a feckless central leadership that has no grassroots appeal or track record of statesmanship, and Narendra Modi, trying to create a presidential style of legitimacy in a federalised parliamentary system. It is in a race with the Congress over the same things: indecisiveness, corruption, decimation of institutions and a sense of entitlement. The competition in the democratic system is like so many things in India, both intense and illusory at the same time.

Read the full article at the Indian Express: The third way out

'Shocked, Disappointed And Distressed'

Thu, 16 May 2013 21:01:38 GMT

Rahul Dravid, a captain who's always taken pride in his integrity and his team, was visibly devastated by the spot-fixing shocker involving three of his team mates.

I am shocked, disappointed and distressed by the events that have resulted in the arrests last night and this morning

Rajasthan Royals is a special team and we have always operated as a family. So this is devastating to us.

Asghar Ali Engineer (1939-2013)

Wed, 15 May 2013 23:42:02 GMT

Asghar Ali Engineer's son, Irfan explained why his funeral took place at the Sunni Muslim graveyard in Santa Cruz (W) in accordance with the scholar's wish:

"Most of his friends, like Ali Sardar Jafri, Kaifi Azmi, Majrooh Sultanpuri and K A Abbas, are buried there and he, too, wanted to be buried thereS. ecuring a place for him at a Bohra cemetery might have been tough as he was excommunicated in the 1970s for launching the anti-Bohra-priest, reformist movement."

Jyoti Punwani in the Mumbai Mirror: There will never be another Asghar Ali

Engineer was a brave man. Assaulted six times, twice almost fatally, by orthodox Bohras, simply for fighting constitutionally against the absolute hold of the Syedna over the community, it would have been easy for him to give up a fight he began openly in 1973, with an article in The Times of India. The social boycott against him declared by the Bohra clergy cut him off for years from his family, including his mother, and in his words, "almost drove (me) mad".

The political establishment, all the way up to Indira Gandhi and Vajpayee, stood solidly behind the Syedna. Yet, Engineer remained a Reformist throughout, and not just in his personal life. Under his guidance, the Reformists became a force to reckon with, with women at the forefront of the movement. He showed the same courage in openly organising support for the Shahbano judgment, when the Muslim establishment mounted a campaign against it.

I Had A Double Mastectomy: Angelina Jolie

Tue, 14 May 2013 21:43:24 GMT

Writing in the New York Times, Angelina Jolie has revealed that she underwent a preventive double mastectomy (the medical term for the surgical removal of one or both breasts) to reduce her risk of breast cancer.

My doctors estimated that I had an 87 percent risk of breast cancer and a 50 percent risk of ovarian cancer, although the risk is different in the case of each woman.

Only a fraction of breast cancers result from an inherited gene mutation. Those with a defect in BRCA1 have a 65 percent risk of getting it, on average.

Once I knew that this was my reality, I decided to be proactive and to minimize the risk as much I could. I made a decision to have a preventive double mastectomy. I started with the breasts, as my risk of breast cancer is higher than my risk of ovarian cancer, and the surgery is more complex.

On April 27, I finished the three months of medical procedures that the mastectomies involved. During that time I have been able to keep this private and to carry on with my work.

But I am writing about it now because I hope that other women can benefit from my experience. Cancer is still a word that strikes fear into people’s hearts, producing a deep sense of powerlessness. But today it is possible to find out through a blood test whether you are highly susceptible to breast and ovarian cancer, and then take action.

Read the full piece at the NYT: My Medical Choice