POSTED BY Sundeep ON Mar 15, 2011 AT 23:59 IST ,  Edited At: Mar 15, 2011 23:59 IST

The Hindu has a massive six million words scoop today in the form of 5,100 cables offering its readers:

"a series of unprecedented insights into India's foreign policy and domestic affairs, diplomatic, political, economic, social, cultural, and intellectual – encountered, observed, tracked, interpreted, commented upon, appreciated, and pilloried by U.S. diplomats cabling the State Department in Washington D.C."

The Hindu editor in chief, Mr N. Ram describes and details how it got hold of the cables and how it went about putting them out:

Our contacts with WikiLeaks were initiated in the second week of December 2010. It was a period when Cablegate had captured the attention and imagination of a news-hungry world...

Hopes of getting our hands on the entire India Cache rose in the second half of December when Julian Assange spoke, in a newspaper interview, of “the incredible potential of the Indian media” in a context of “a lot of corruption” (waiting to be exposed), a rising middle class, and growing access to the internet – and specifically mentioned and praised The Hindu.

To cut the story short, our active contacts with WikiLeaks resumed in mid-February 2011. A breakthrough was achieved without any fuss, resulting in a detailed understanding on the terms and modus of publication, including redacting (where, and only where, necessary) and compliance with a security protocol for protecting and handling the sensitive material – and we had the whole cache of the India Cables in our hands in early March....

Already, there has been a furore in Parliament   on what the American diplomats were saying about the cabinet reshuffle of 2006. As the cables begin to be read, absorbed and debated, among other things, there is bound to be at least a better understanding of which of the Indian politicians and journalists the American diplomats considered pro and anti American.

Much has already been said about the cabinet formation in 2009 after the shocking disclosures of the Radia tapes. Now take the cabinet reshuffle of 2006, on which Outlook reported as follows:

But Deora's appointment does not simply send out a pro-reforms, pro-US message that suits the PM at this moment. It also says that this is collection time, given his legendary fund-raising skills and his closeness to two powerful corporate houses, one of which has a clear interest in his ministry. Especially when read with the power portfolio being given to former Andhra Pradesh governor Sushilkumar Shinde, believed to be close to another corporate leader with interests in his ministry.

On Mr Aiyar being deprived of the Oil ministry, Mr Prem Shankar Jha wrote as follows:

Aiyar may have been moved because a side-effect of the long-term energy security plans he was beginning to implement would have been to change the global balance of power away from the US. Aiyar was not only determined to push ahead with the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, to which the US had voiced strong objection on the ground that it would impede its efforts to isolate Iran, but he was actively putting in place an Asian gas grid that would link India with Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, China and Myanmar. In addition, Aiyar had infused new vigour into India's efforts to acquire shares in oil fields abroad and, most troubling to the US, had signed an agreement with China that would enable the state-owned oil companies of the two countries to bid jointly for companies, concessions and oil fields in other countries in the future.

...This was our overpowering desire to fall in line with the American policies—a desire that turned into hunger after the July 18 agreement and is turning into an obsession as the Bush visit draws near. My suspicions hardened when Deora's first observation after being sworn in was that there were many difficulties with the Iran-India gas pipeline project.

And now let's take what Cable #51088, titled, "UPA cabinet shuffle good for America" by then Ambassador Mulford goes on to offer in its summary:

Removing contentious and outspoken Iran pipeline advocate Mani Shankar Aiyar from the Petroleum portfolio, the UPA replaced him with the pro-US Murli Deora, who was one of several figures inducted with long-standing ties to the Indo/US Parliamentary Forum (IUPF) and the Embassy. The UPA also inducted a large number of serving MPs, including seven from the IUPF who have publicly associated themselves with our strategic partnership. To ensure that there are no foreign policy ripples before the President's visit, PM Singh retained the critical MEA portfolio and is likely to hold on to it until after the next session of Parliament concludes and Congress has weathered crucial Assembly elections in Kerala and West Bengal in May. Viewing the shuffle as a shift towards the US, the left has become more alienated from Congress and more determined to obstruct UPA economic liberalization and foreign policy initiatives, all but ensuring political fireworks in the months ahead. The net effect of the reshuffle, however, is a Cabinet that is likely to be excellent for US goals in India (and Iran).

The cable then goes on to talk at length about what it terms the Aiyar controversy:

4. (C) Our Foreign Ministry contacts welcomed Aiyar's departure, commenting that his energy diplomacy had encroached on MEA turf too many times, leading to MEA appeals to the Prime Minister's Office to intercede. Despite the PMO warning to back off, Aiyar's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MPNG) continued to interfere with MEA attempts to craft policy, our contacts said, citing Pakistan, China, Burma, Bangladesh, Iran and Sudan as areas of intergovernmental conflict. Aiyar's unwillingness to step back reportedly led to the PM's decision to remove him from this high-profile portfolio, and cements MEA's position as the lead bureaucracy on strategic policy making.

5. (C) Aiyar's dismissal as Petroleum Minister will leave MEA officials breathing easier, and put MEA back in charge of policy toward these energy suppliers, including the ""problem children"" of Sudan, Burma and Iran. Unlike Aiyar, who cultivated a reputation for anti-Americanism, Murli Deora has been associated with the US/India relationship for years. Lacking Aiyar's ambitions (or entrepreneurial zeal), he will be a more cautious Minister. Clearing these lines of authority should make the PM's job of coordinating India's often-conflicting interests in energy security, trade, investment, anti-terrorism and stronger ties with the West a bit less muddled. His departure also weakens the holdouts fighting a rear-guard action against stronger engagement with the US, who would prefer that India hold true to its non-aligned traditions. Local journalists speculate that Aiyar's parting shot was the leak on January 28 of the USG demarche (ref A) protesting Indian investment in Syrian oil projects, spun by opponents of US-India engagement as another attempt by the US to dictate policy to India...

7. (C) Aiyar's replacement as Petroleum Minister, Murli Deora, is a stalwart supporter of stronger US-India ties, and one of the few high-profile Congress leaders who embraces the PM's vision of the bilateral relationship. He is currently the Chairman of the India-US Forum of Parliamentarians, a non-partisan, industry-sponsored counterpart to the US Congress's India Caucus that advocates closer political and economic ties to the United States. Deora is a Gandhi family loyalist and a wealthy Mumbai-based industrialist, and is currently serving his fourth term as a member of the Lok Sabha. Deora's only vulnerability, as a Mumbai politician, is his long-standing connection to the Reliance industrial group, which includes significant energy equities.

8. (C) One analyst at Petrowatch, an industry publication in Mumbai, noted that Aiyar,s dismissal removes a powerful supporter of the Iran Pipeline project and speculated that it could signal a shift in the GOI's energy-related foreign policy....
15 (C) ...The new entrants with strong pro-US credentials include Saifuddin Soz, Anand Sharma, Ashwani Kumar, Kapil Sibal and Aiyar's replacement Murli Deora. Seven of the new faces are also members of the pro-American Indo/US Parliamentary Forum, while the induction of so many entrants from the Rajya Sabha reflects the declining importance of a mass political base. The timing of the shuffle and the PM's retention of the MEA portfolio were dictated by the impending POTUS visit, and reflects the PM's commitment to ensure that there is no foreign policy surprises before the visit.


Incidentally, there had been some speculation among those who didn't bother to look up the archives about the identity of the journalist mentioned in the following paragraph in an article by Mr Siddharth Varadarajan, while analysing the cables on Iran’s nuclear programme:

“The challenge for Washington was to get India off the fence, especially when this would be seen in India as siding with the U.S. “An op-ed by a reliably anti-American reporter for The Hindu on September 1 encouraged the GOI to stand by Iran as the ‘litmus test’ of India’s willingness to pursue an ‘ independent’ foreign policy,” the cable noted.

Mr Varadarajan had to clarify on Twitter that the said “reliably anti-American repoter for The Hindu” was indeed Amit Baruah, former Islamabad and Colombo correspondent of the paper who joined BBC Hindi as its head.

Clearly, we are in for a treat of  "unprecedented insights" that these cables promise.

Watch this space.

POSTED BY Sundeep ON Mar 15, 2011 AT 23:59 IST ,  Edited At: Mar 15, 2011 23:59 IST
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Daily Mail
Digression
19/D-99
Mar 17, 2011
03:29 PM

@nobody

They lose too. They will lose transit fee, be liable to insurer, most likely will not be able to get their own share of gas either

you are thinking rationally and you assume the Pakistani state behaves as a rational entity.

In wartime all bets are off. The Pakistani army, (see some of the statements the Army Chief Kiyani makes) nurses a pathological hatred of India and they will want to win at any cost. 

Even in peacetime, possibilites of blackmail exist. The Pakis will surely exploit any opportunity.

MK Saini
Delhi, India
18/D-20
Mar 17, 2011
03:29 AM

Manish,

"The Pakistani portion is really small ."

It isn't. It passes through Balochistan and Sindh, which are huge.

The IPI is 2775 KMs in length. The TAPI is 1680 KMs.

"And once the line reaches India there are several private & public sector Indian companies which are willing to take over."

'willing to'... while the TAPI has already secured funding from ADB.   

"Mind you there is frantic activities on intra-India pipeline front & billions of dollars are being invested right at this moment."

Completely irrelevant. It will be built irrespective.

"This discredited story about insurance is hogwash"

Discredited by? Pipeline insurance across enemy territory is hogwash?

&" does not speak well about sovereign India."

Spending billions on a pipeline which passes through Balochistan where freedom fighters main tactic is to blow up pipelines, doesn't speak well about the sanity of India. 

"There is a thing called sovereign guarantee. This point was raised during the nuclear liability question & nobody took it seriously."

Pakistan can't even pee without help, forget about sovereignty. We are talking about financial institutional guarantee. Do you know why the IWT was underwritten by the WB?

"The question pf gas price is contentious. But at this point of time irrelevant nor did the Iranians are talking about gas price in context of the pipeline . Both Insurance & price are red herrings."

You are welcome to buy gas at 8.3 USD per mbtu from the IPI. As oil price rises, the gas price will rise too, in the Iranian pricing model. I will stick to the non-contentious Reliance gas at 4.2 USD per mbtu which is pegged to the international market rate.  

Red herring ? You think discussion of gas supply guarantees and pricing are diversionary debating tactics?

"Yeah ! TAPI is really the same pipeline from Turkmenistan, the Iranians left out."

How is it the same pipeline then? TAPI will link to the Central Asian gas market where Russia and China are already plugged in. 

MK Saini,

"the Americans haven't been able to ensure security in AfPak. So what does it matter if they support it. No security no pipeline"

We already have "no pipeline". We will never be able to depend on supply routes through AfPak.  But the situation with a pipeline is better, if penalty clauses apply to the disrupting party. While it functions, it is useful.

"this doesn't ring true. What can Afghanistan or Turkmenistan say to the Pakis."

They can cut the supply to Pakis. Indian, Paki allocation is exactly the same . It's Pakistan that would be disproportionately hurt. Can you imagine a situation where Iran with no international pressure on it, will act against Pakistan on our behest?

" Pakistan will surely cut the pipeline during a conflict. Most likely they will use some Lashkar types to threaten to blow up the line every few months. Just to keep some deniability and a background level of noise"

They lose too. They will lose transit fee, be liable to insurer, most likely will not be able to get their own share of gas either.

nobody inparticular
Mumbai, India
17/D-1
Mar 17, 2011
12:09 AM

Good stuff from Hindu. People used to reading the crappy Times of India and Mumbai Mirror which treat Chetan Bhagat and Shoba De as experts on every topic under the sun cannot appreciate the hindu

sudharshan
madras, india
16/D-90
Mar 16, 2011
08:21 PM

India has to buy crude on the open market. Its a different thing to long term supply contracts.

 Mr. Saini,  a sensible & open minded person like you , I am sure, would not call a long term energy security deal  an impedimemt.

MANISH BANERJEE
KOLKATA, India
15/D-85
Mar 16, 2011
07:54 PM

Nobody is willing to fund a project involving Iran and Pakistan

The Iranian side of the pipeline is complete which dispalys good sense on the part of the Iranians. They are urging Pakistan to take over. The Pakistani portion is really small . And once the line reaches India there are several private & public sector Indian companies which are willing to take over.Mind you there is frantic activities on intra-India pipeline front & billions of dollars are being invested right at this moment.

Nobody will insure it

This discredited story about insurance is hogwash & does not speak well about sovereign India. There is a thing called sovereign guarantee.  This point was raised during the nuclear liability question & nobody took it seriously.

Iran has unilaterally re-negotiated the price,

The question pf gas price is contentious. But at this point of time irrelevant nor did the Iranians are talking about gas price in context of the pipeline . Both Insurance & price are red herrings.

The TAPI project on the other hand, has American support.

Yeah ! TAPI is really the same pipeline from  Turkmenistan, the Iranians left out. Its kosher because US oil multinatinals promotes it. And all this concerns about insecure tarrain , Irani & Pakistani intractibility , pipeline security , gas flow cut off, finance , insurance , price & what not vanishes.

TAPI is really the same pipeline extended to Turkmenistan

MANISH BANERJEE
KOLKATA, India
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