The May 11th elections in Pakistan represented the first time that a civilian regime completed its term in office and held elections in which power will be transferred democratically to a new civilian regime. In a country where the security establishment has a long history of throwing out elected regimes and manipulating results, this in itself was an important landmark. For this (and for very little else, unfortunately) we can thank President Zardari and his coalition building skills and stubborn determination.

For my pre-election predictions, see here. For immediate post-result thoughts, see here.

In the short election campaign the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan captured the imagination of the newly educated and elite classes but it did not have the time (and/or the ability) to catch up with the pre-poll favourite, the PMLN. The superior and far more detailed groundwork done by the PMLN while it ruled Punjab for 5 years, its stronger slate of candidates, its relatively energetic performance in the Punjab government, and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s improved reputation, (along with a PPP collapse) led to a PMLN landslide in Punjab. This has practically given the PMLN a simple majority in the national assembly in spite of having only a handful of seats outside Punjab. The newcomer PTI will form a coalition government in KP; PPP, with or without MQM, will rule again in Sindh; and Balochistan remains a unique case, completely outside the national mainstream.

With daily bombings by the Taliban keeping a check on the ANP, PPP and (to some extent) the MQM, and with an insurgency and its frequently vicious suppression going on in Balochistan, traditional campaigning was mostly confined to Punjab. There, an almost millenarian excitement took hold of the middle class in the course of the PTI campaign; This phenomenon was most visible on social media and in the better neighbourhoods of urban centres. Meeting each other at coffee spots and snack bars and pushing “like” buttons on each other’s facebook pages, the newly energized middle class supporters of Imran Khan managed to convince themselves that a complete root and branch renovation of Pakistan under brand new leadership was on the cards.

Never mind that Imran Khan’s had not told anyone how the great 90 day transformation would be carried out in terms of actual mechanics and workable solutions. Or that Imran Khan’s actual candidates (in a parliamentary system, constituency politics matters) were a motley collection of turncoats, inexperienced youngsters, Islamists (a good number made their bones in the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, student wing of the Jamat Islami and not known for handling opponents with kidgloves),

NGO stars and not-so-clean real estate manipulators was ignored. Unaware that this excitement had not really reached all voters, these newly politicised young people were taken aback when results did not match expectations and loudly complained about electoral rigging. But there is no indication that there was any nation-wide systematic manipulation by the establishment of the sort that has happened regularly in past elections. Small-scale local rigging did take place (and possibly some late-night administrative shenanigans did take place in Punjab once trends became clear) but compared to most past elections, this one was relatively clean in Punjab. Since most PTI voters were not involved in past elections, they don’t have any benchmark with which to compare this election and remain convinced that they were robbed. But given the fact that PMLN has probably won fair and square on most seats and even PTI enthusiasts have little concrete proof of extensive rigging, these protests will fade soon in Punjab.

The same cannot be said of Karachi; there, the MQM has been accused of extensive ballot-stuffing and other irregularities. While PTI did not make any serious campaign effort in the MQM strongholds, they did put up a strong campaign in NA250, where a lot of the super-elite lives. When the election commission failed to conduct a fair election even in that seat the PTI broke a longstanding Karachi taboo and openly protested against the MQM. MQM chief Altaf Hussain made a threatening speech from London in response and on Saturday a prominent member of the PTI women’s wing was shot dead in an apparent target killing.

While no one has claimed responsibility and the police (as usual) have no leads, Imran Khan made the unusual move of publicly holding Altaf Hussain responsible for this murder. The resulting confrontation between the PTI and the MQM has raised the hopes of all those in the country who think the MQM needs to be cut down to size and its mafia-like hold on Karachi has to be defanged. But that may be easier said than done. More on this later. .

In terms of government formation, the post-election landscape seems more or less clear. PMLN will form governments in Punjab and at the centre. PTI will form an Islamist-leaning coalition in KP and will get a chance to show what their promises of radical change mean in practice. There will be a weak coalition of doubtful legitimacy in Balochistan, where the army will continue to call the shots. In Sindh, the PPP will form the government and most likely will take MQM along for the sake of peace. But what happens after that? A few guesses from a distant observer:

1. The rigging allegations in Punjab will come to nothing. PMLN will rule unchallenged for now. Barring any sudden deterioration in the security situation, they will push ahead with many development projects. They also need to improve law and order and to avoid administrative high-handedness, but given their record, may not do as well in these areas. The inevitable result will be that even if they are able to retain the loyalty of most voters, there will be resentments and complaints that will create openings for opposition parties. PTI and PPP will now have to struggle to define one of them as the main opposition. PTI may look like it has the advantage right now, but PPP is not without strengths. IF it recasts itself as a left-of-centre social democratic party and does some creative politicking on behalf of poor people (instead of having Manzoor Wattoo hunt for “electables”) it will not face real competition for that space from the Paknationalist-middle class focus of the PTI. Whether it can actually do so under current leadership is an open question. PTI may settle into the role of main opposition (and therefore have a reasonable chance in the next election) but their problem is their broad but shallow coalition and its millenarian tendencies. While this kind of vague and image-heavy nationalist and religious revivalism can be an advantage in a one-time go for broke effort, this quasi-religious mission is not the best formula for long term electoral success. We will have to wait and see if PTI matures into a real party or remains a one-hit wonder.
2. Imran Khan’s provincial government in KP will face the Taliban problem from day one and will be unable to solve it. Some people think the security establishment wanted this regime in KP so that they can better manage their dealings with "good" and "bad" Taliban as the American effort in Afghanistan winds down. But even if they did make such plans, it doesnt mean their plans will lead where they want. They will be unable to control the bad Taliban and will be unable to decisively separate the good Taliban from them. And if the plan for Afghanistan is for "our Taliban" to take over smoothly once the Americans leave,then that too is not going to happen.In the end, the security services will have to fight both the good and the bad Taliban on behalf of the Pakistani elite. They may not want to do so, but they will not have a choice in this matter. There may be relative peace for a few months as negotiations proceed, but war will inevitably follow. The Jihadist project is not compatible with globalized capitalist economy and when push comes to shove, the Pakistani elite will pick global capitalism over Jihad. The days when both were on offer from the same American shop are over.
3. While the PTI regime in KP will not be able to deliver on its promise of peace, they still have the chance to show some improvement in governance and corruption. Thatwillrequire Imran Khan to appoint good people (like he did in Shaukat Khanum hospital) and then let them work unencumbered by variouscrackpot ideasabout jirgas,Scandinavian Islamand elected police officials.Andit will require smooth cooperation between the Jamat Islami and PTI without accepting all of Jamat’s own collection of crackpot Islamist ideas. These are big challenges, but if PTI can stay away from some of their own impractical or dangerous talking points (they dont have to abandon them in public, just ignore them in practice), then they may deliver improved administration and become a real party with a long-term future.
4. Karachi is a migraine for all concerned. First of all, we should be clear that there is no question of PTI “taking on” the MQM in Karachi on its own. PTI has no armed operatives and no mafia-skills. They can collect everyone’s sympathy and still get nowhere. The only way this confrontation tilts towards PTI is if the state is willing to fight MQM on their behalf. But that has issues of its own. The police and judiciary in Karachi is currently politicised, corrupt and ineffective. They will not be able to do this job on their own. This means that if there is a confrontation between the state and MQM, the army and its intelligence agencies will be involved or MQM will win. And the "agency" way of “getting it done” in Pakistan usually involves causing a split in the targeted party (e.g. by engineering a revolt in the party or maybe even getting Altaf Hussain arrested in London in connection with the killing of Imran Farooq), setting off a turf-war on the streets, and then using extra-judicial executions and disappearances to manage the resulting violence. They havenoother script. But these are inherently risky operations and the intelligence agencies have such a long and convoluted history of meddling in Karachi that by now even they dont know who will fight who on whose behalf. Since neither the PMLN nor the army, can afford a risky operation in Karachi while busy fighting Taliban, its probalby not going to happen in the near future. Even if they do try it, it will not be the quick restoration of law and order so desired by many who are currently sick of the MQM. It will be chaotic, it will be violent, and it will not end soon. And given rumors of links with British intelligence and the "international community", Altaf Hussain may not have run out of options yet. So the more likely scenario is that PTI’s more elite followers will be permitted to openly challenge the MQM in some areas (a big change in itself) but there will be no grand operation and no sudden restoration of rule of law in Karachi. IF Nawaz Sharif and the army prove to be miracles of far-sightedness and maturity, then maybe in a few more years MQM will be pushed towards either becoming a more normal political party, or be defanged by careful use of improved law-enforcement in Karachi. All that without alienating Mohajirs as a community or carrying out extensive kill-and-dump operations and crudely executed gang-on-gang manipulations. One can always hope, but there is no quick fix.
5. PMLN will try to get off to a smooth start with the army. They are not suicidal and they have matured enough to avoid hasty confrontations. But at the same time, they know they have to get the army under civilian control in the long run. And the army knows that too. IF leadership on both sides is very mature, they can learn to share power as well as real-estate and mining profits. It would be a miracle, but why not pray for miracles? This one is needed more than most in Pakistan. Given the past records of both parties, there are grounds for being pessimistic, but after minimal deliberation, I am going to make an optimistic prediction: I predict that Nawaz Sharif will not face another military coup. There will be strains and stresses, but the civilian government will remain in place and will slowly increase its control over the armed forces.
6. Relations with India will improve under Nawaz Sharif. There will be no grand deal to solve all problems but trade and travel (and "optics") will be normalized quickly. Nawaz Sharif understands the economic benefits of normalization and the army is starting to realize that in this war of a thousand cuts with India, we have mostly cut ourselves. There will be resistance and setbacks but progress will continue. People believe the army will re-energize the Kashmir Jihad or launch a new Mumbai-style attack, but I dont think the great powers (including China) are in any such mood. Without their tacit approval, the risks are too high. The PTI, led by chief spokesperson Shireen Mazari, may parrot the traditional paknationalist line on this issue, but as long as Nawaz Sharif is delivering better governance and economic performance, the public will remain unimpressed with “betrayal of Kashmir” and other slogans of the"defence of Pakistan council".
7. Nothing much will change in Balochistan. This is sad and undesirable, but that does seem the most likely scenario. The Baloch separatists are too few to actually pull the province out of Pakistani hands by force (unless assisted in a big way by NATO, which doesn’t seem likely to me). At the same time, the army and its agencies operate almost exclusively on the kill-and-dump frequency, with no sign of finesse or any desire to compromise. Transitioning to full civilian rule seems very difficult and will be a Nawaz Sharif miracle if it happens. It probably wont.
8. ANP has been mauled in KP, but this does not have to be the end. As the Taliban continue their violent ways and the "play both sides" strategy falls apart, there will be an opening again for a Pakhtoon nationalist progressive voice. Of course, if the Talibs win (which cannot happen unless the Pakistani state has allowed it to happen) this will have to be movement led from abroad for a while, but even in that case, public support for the ANP will only increase with time. They will need to be available to take advantage of that.

All in all, the elections are a step forward. People voted in large numbers, proving once again that the Taliban propaganda against this “heathen system of government” is not getting much traction. The Zardari regime, for all its faults, managed to get Pakistan to this point and deserves appreciation for this achievement. The rigging allegations and various administrative irregularities have dented the image of this election but a more energetic and forceful elections commissioner next time can repair credibility in the heartland without a big problem. Miracles of various sizes (see above) may be needed in Karachi and Balochistan. Miracles will also be needed to bring the war with the Taliban and the war with India to simultaneous closure. If the PMLN can deliver a more capable regime and restore the economy (doable) and some of the miracles happen, we may be in a much happier place by 2018. If not, we may still hope for more of the same. The one thing we cannot afford is a revolution (Islamic,PTI-Paknationalist o r Marxist-Leninist... the last is not on the cards but comrades are still around and appreciate the plug). We dodged a bullet this time and with luck we may get away next time as well.

Graphic Courtesy: The Dawn, Pakistan

The power of a celebrity sharing personal anecdotes, particularly when it comes to something as life-threatening as breast-cancer and as moving and transformative an experience as a preventive double mastectomy (the medical term for the surgical removal of one or both breasts) to reduce risk of breast cancer was brought home when Angelina Jolie wrote her celebrated "brave and heroic" op-ed in the New York Times. what she described as a "desire to encourage other women to get gene-tested and to raise awareness of the options available to those at risk"

Leaving aside predictable adoloscent male responses on the lines of memorial pages on something aptly named as the Superficial, there was genuine admiration and a world-wide media-buzz.  As the Guardian put it:

Pratap Bhanu Mehta doesn't pull any punches:

The idea of a third front may not be a coherent political project. But its shadowy presence is a reminder that there is an underlying yearning to break through the limited choices offered by national parties. The Congress has perfected the art of converting the "there is no alternative" argument to a form of hubris and blackmail. It has induced such a profound myopia and arrogance in the party that even Congress supporters chafe at the thought of having no options. It may not always be irrational to succumb to blackmail, but we will be diminished if we don't punish it for its follies. The BJP does not, at present, offer a reassuring alternative. The party has four structures pulling in different directions: an obdurate RSS that still cannot overcome its past, several competent chief ministers whose ability to work together is yet to be tested, a feckless central leadership that has no grassroots appeal or track record of statesmanship, and Narendra Modi, trying to create a presidential style of legitimacy in a federalised parliamentary system. It is in a race with the Congress over the same things: indecisiveness, corruption, decimation of institutions and a sense of entitlement. The competition in the democratic system is like so many things in India, both intense and illusory at the same time.

Read the full article at the Indian Express: The third way out

Rahul Dravid, a captain who's always taken pride in his integrity and his team, was visibly devastated by the spot-fixing shocker involving three of his team mates.

I am shocked, disappointed and distressed by the events that have resulted in the arrests last night and this morning

Rajasthan Royals is a special team and we have always operated as a family. So this is devastating to us.

Asghar Ali Engineer's son, Irfan explained why his funeral took place at the Sunni Muslim graveyard in Santa Cruz (W) in accordance with the scholar's wish:

"Most of his friends, like Ali Sardar Jafri, Kaifi Azmi, Majrooh Sultanpuri and K A Abbas, are buried there and he, too, wanted to be buried thereS. ecuring a place for him at a Bohra cemetery might have been tough as he was excommunicated in the 1970s for launching the anti-Bohra-priest, reformist movement."

Jyoti Punwani in the Mumbai Mirror: There will never be another Asghar Ali

Engineer was a brave man. Assaulted six times, twice almost fatally, by orthodox Bohras, simply for fighting constitutionally against the absolute hold of the Syedna over the community, it would have been easy for him to give up a fight he began openly in 1973, with an article in The Times of India. The social boycott against him declared by the Bohra clergy cut him off for years from his family, including his mother, and in his words, "almost drove (me) mad".

The political establishment, all the way up to Indira Gandhi and Vajpayee, stood solidly behind the Syedna. Yet, Engineer remained a Reformist throughout, and not just in his personal life. Under his guidance, the Reformists became a force to reckon with, with women at the forefront of the movement. He showed the same courage in openly organising support for the Shahbano judgment, when the Muslim establishment mounted a campaign against it.

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Writing in the New York Times, Angelina Jolie has revealed that she underwent a preventive double mastectomy (the medical term for the surgical removal of one or both breasts) to reduce her risk of breast cancer.

My doctors estimated that I had an 87 percent risk of breast cancer and a 50 percent risk of ovarian cancer, although the risk is different in the case of each woman.

Only a fraction of breast cancers result from an inherited gene mutation. Those with a defect in BRCA1 have a 65 percent risk of getting it, on average.

Once I knew that this was my reality, I decided to be proactive and to minimize the risk as much I could. I made a decision to have a preventive double mastectomy. I started with the breasts, as my risk of breast cancer is higher than my risk of ovarian cancer, and the surgery is more complex.

On April 27, I finished the three months of medical procedures that the mastectomies involved. During that time I have been able to keep this private and to carry on with my work.

But I am writing about it now because I hope that other women can benefit from my experience. Cancer is still a word that strikes fear into people’s hearts, producing a deep sense of powerlessness. But today it is possible to find out through a blood test whether you are highly susceptible to breast and ovarian cancer, and then take action.

Read the full piece at the NYT: My Medical Choice

Just in case you thought we were joking, or that it was some sort of a hoax, well, here it is:

The Virgin Group founder, British business magnate Richard Branson put on lipstick, had his legs shaved and squeezed into a red skirt to honour a bet he had lost to AirAsia chief Tony Fernandes.

The bet, as reported earlier, was over whose Formula One race team would be ranked higher and Fernandes' Lotus Racing team won over over that of Virgin..

As per the terms of the bet, Branson served as a flight attendant on an AirAsia trip from Perth, Australia, to Malaysia.

But he had his revenge by deliberately dumping a tray of orange juice on Fernandes' lap, earning not only  a reprimand from

Fernandes gleefully declared after Sunday's nearly six-hour flight that Branson's skills as an attendant were "rubbish" and that he was being immediately fired.

These may change a little, but not by much.

Leads in various constituencies:

PMLN: 118 
PPP: 34
PTI: 33
MQM: 11
JUI-F 13
PMLQ: 3
Independents 26
ANP: 1
and so on. 
In a house of 272

My first thoughts: Alhamdolillah, the common people of Punjab (especially rural Punjab) have successfully stopped the PTI tsunami from overrunning the country. I am not a huge PMLN fan, but I do think Mian sahib is a calmer, more pragmatic and more mature person than Imran Khan and his team of over-enthusiastic Paknationalist middle class revolutionaries. And with Choudhry Nisar losing, the PMLN team may even improve a little bit. PPP has been routed all over Punjab. Left revolutionary brothers had no dog in this race, so they will not be upset at this comment (I hope). Right revolutionary brothers should try again next time. With the bourgeoisie, its always better to stay near the center and not try for too much change…it doesn't suit our class.

File Photo

April 27, 2013 | No Question of Law Min Resigning Over Coalgate: PM

"There is no question of the Law Minister resigning. The matter is now in the court and it is sub-judice. It is not proper for me to do anything. But there is no question of the Law Minister resigning"

May 10, 2013 | Finally, Pawan Bansal, Ashwani Kumar Made to Quit

***

Like a stuck record, a few random quotes from a few random blogs from the archives:

Pratap Bhanu Mehta pulls no punches in the Indian Express:

The responsibility for a culture of corruption, evasion, lying and sheer contempt for institutions lies directly at the door of Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh...

The republic is now at a delicate crossroads. The government may brazen it out. But in doing so, it is creating a crisis of institutions not seen since the Emergency days, when an executive took on the judiciary on the dubious grounds that it had a mandate. Effectively speaking, there is no Parliament left. What does the claim to democratic mandate mean? Karnataka may have voted for Congress to punish one set of rascals. But in her heart, every voter knows that democracy is being subverted in its very exercise. The lasting damage this government has done to institutions will take a long time to repair. Seldom before have we seen a government that poisoned its own mandate, and so needlessly. The prime minister is honest, we will hear. But never before has someone been so thoroughly compromised through abdication. Sonia Gandhi stands for the poor. Never before have the poor been so brazenly used to cover a multitude of sins; and never before has so much emphasis been on policy that will condemn the poor to poverty. The government's position is untenable. It has a choice: inflict governance torture on the country, or let the people speak as soon as possible. As Karnataka showed, democracy may give them a second chance. But at the moment, the government is not giving the country any chance.

Read the full piece at the Indian Express: Phantom Democracy

The lack of Congress enthusiasm for Prime Minister Mamohan Singh is well captured in the above photo posted on Twitter by @ShivAroor

We are not sure whether or not the Supreme Court's stinging criticism of the Manmohan Singh government had anything to do with this dampening of enthusiasm, but what should the PM do now? Do tell us on by participating in our Facebook poll

For those who came in late: the latest controversy involving Dr Manmohan Singh and his UPA government has its genesis in a March 2012 Draft CAG report on 'allocating coal blocks in an inefficient manner' during the period 2004–2009, when the coal ministry was directly under the charge of prime minister. Team Anna picked up the issue, and the otherwise reticent PM went to the extent of saying: "If it turns out that there is even an element of truth in these charges, I will give up my public career and [the] country can give me any punishment." 

As the controversy spread, after names of the recipients of coal block allocations were revealed, the case was handed over for investigation to the CBI. The CBI draft status report, submitted to the SC on March 8, pointed out that allocations were done without verifying the credentials of companies which allegedly misrepresented facts about themselves. The government vehemently refuted these findings of "arbitrary allotments without scrutiny" and claimed that the "CBI is not the final word on this"

A bench of Justices R M Lodha, J Chelameswar and Madan B Lokur, in an unprecedented move then asked CBI director Ranjit Sinha to file an affidavit affirming that its report "was vetted by him and nothing contained therein has been shared with the political executive". Attorney General (AG) Goolam Vahanvati, when asked, told the court he had not gone through the report. Additional Solicitor General (ASG) Harin Rawal went on to make an unequivocal statement that the status report had not been shared with anybody from the political executive. 

After much speculation and many denials the CBI director in his affidavit to the SC admitted that the draft of the status report had indeed been "shared with Law Minister as desired by him prior to its submission before the Supreme Court. Besides the political executive, it was also shared with one joint secretary level officer each of Prime Minister's Office and Ministry of Coal as desired by them."

As demands rose for the law minister's resignation, the PM stepped in to aggressively defend him: "There is no question of the Law Minister resigning. The matter is now in the court and it is sub-judice. It is not proper for me to do anything. But there is no question of the Law Minister resigning."

Meanwhile, the ASG blamed the AG,  corroborated the CBI claim, and said that he "felt embarrassed and was forced to take a stand in the court consistent" with that of the AG because he had already stated that the "contents of the status report were not known" to him.

And now comes the stinging indictment from the SC, asking the CBI, inter alia, "Can you tell us, is the Law Minister entitled to call for such reports? Joint Secretary Coal, Joint Secretary PMO -- can they also look into the status report? Why were details of changes, and under whose instance these changes were made, not disclosed in CBI chief's affidavit?"

The questions for the PM are piling up. One doesn't have to research too hard to name many such times in the past when the stand taken up by him does not quite square with his reputation for honesty. Here's a quick list from memory: